By Saliem Fakir –
ANALYSIS –
The local hype over shale-gas continues as the ANC’s National Executive Committee recently announced that shale-gas is a “game-changer” and must be exploited for the benefit of the country.
How much gas there truly is below the Karoo’s surface is anybody’s guess. The original U.S. estimate of the South African resource was put at 480 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Separate resource estimates by the Petroleum Agency of South Africa and the Geological Sciences Council put estimates much lower at anywhere between 40-72 TCF — and this is only for the resource. We don’t know enough to have a view on the final economic reserve. Water could be a pivotal factor in Karoo shale-gas extraction, possibly throwing the economics out.
This has not tamed the propaganda from both sides. Nevertheless, it is science and hard-nosed economics that will ultimately determine what is viable.
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